Since I still see people panic about Christian higher education every time the news emerges that a Christian college or university with less than 700 students closes, I thought it would be helpful to look at the bulk enrollment numbers again using the most recent 2021 total enrollment figures from the Digest of Education Statistics.
Everyone should know from online articles about college-aged student demographics that enrollment will continue shrinking from the 21,019,438 enrollment numbers of 2010 for the foreseeable future. In fact, total higher education enrollment has decreased by 11.2% between 2010 and 2021.
Yet, when comparing different higher education sectors, an important finding emerges that the Christian press and attention-seeking bloggers and tweeters neglect to report. This table shows the percentages of decline in enrollment for various sectors between 2010 and 2021:
| Sector | Decrease Between 2010 to 2021 |
| Public | -11% |
| All Private | -13% |
| Religious Private | -3% |
| Secular Private | -18% |
You would not know private religious institutions are declining the least among higher education sectors by all the handwringing about the decline of Christian higher education that one sees online. The problem with most of this analysis is that it fails to compare the religious sector to other sectors. I should note that the “Religious Private” category includes a wide range of institutional types and religious groups. My analysis of the 2022 enrollment figures for only Christian colleges and universities can be found in this post. The 2023 enrollment figures come out in a few months, and I will once again disaggregate the 2023 enrollment figures for specifically Christian colleges and universities when they do.
The denominations (or non-denominations) that increased their enrollment the most between 2010 and 2021 are shown in the following table:
| Denomination | # | % |
| Assemblies of God | +5243 | 33% |
| Inter, Non, Un-denominational or Other Protestant | +20323 | 27% |
| Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran | +390 | 23% |
As can be seen, the most recent growth of Christian higher education has been among the Assemblies of God and inter- or nondenominational institutions.
With only a few exceptions, the denominational institutions that decreased the most between 2010 and 2021 were mostly Mainline Protestant institutions (See Table below).
| Denomination | # | % |
| Evangelical Free | -1459 | -50% |
| Free Will Baptist | -1567 | -41% |
| Lutheran Church in America | -3358 | -41% |
| United Church of Christ | -5990 | -29% |
| Friends/Quakers | -3744 | -27% |
| Presbyterian Church in America | -523 | -25% |
| Free Methodist | -2863 | -23% |
| Christian Churches | -2213 | -22% |
The three exceptions all have “Free” in their name and their declines can be explained by various factors. For example, an Evangelical Free institution recently closed mainly because it had not established an endowment (apparently for theological reasons).
One might wonder: What are the differences in total enrollment between 2020 and 2021? Was there a more recent post-COVID slide among private religious institutions? The recent data does not reveal anything major. For this past year, secular private institutions stopped their major enrollment slide, and–while religious private enrollment did see a decline, it declined less than public institutions:
| Sector | Decrease Between 2020 to 2021 |
| Public | -2.5% |
| All Private | -0.5% |
| Religious Private | -1.4% |
| Secular Private | 0% |
Thus, I suggest the major danger facing religious higher education has less to do with their enrollment numbers and more with their unsustainable habit of increasing tuition discounting. One recent study of 341 private institutions reported that the 2022-23 discount rates were “the highest ever recorded.” If your enrollment is below 1000 students and your tuition discounting is above the “56.2% average institutional tuition discount rate for first-year students,” you need to think about your approach and sustainability. The reality is that economies of scale, what I call the Walmartization of higher education, reward larger institutions unless a smaller institution has the endowment or demand to offer a boutique Christian liberal arts education.
Thus, we should not be surprised when some of these institutions close. These closures are a tragedy for the students, the employees, and the local communities in which these institutions exist. Yet, we should not use these isolated closures as an excuse to ignore the bigger picture and story regarding enrollment in religious institutions. Let’s please stop the “sky is falling” rhetoric.
Editor’s Note: The Christ Animating Learning Blog will take a two-week break from July 18th to July 31st. Of course, please continue to send your blog posts for August. Thanks!
Thanks for this helpful article. One small correction: the second table refers to “Free Will Methodist,” which isn’t an actual denomination. It’s “Free Methodist.”
Thanks! I will make the edit.
Perry
Thanks again for giving us a research perspective–a bird’s eye view–on the data and trends, helping us to reframe what is happening out here.
I think some of our handwringing is related to reading about college closures: 61 colleges closed/merged since 2020, See https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/closed-colleges-list-statistics-major-closures/
And yes, as you suggest, fiscal challenges, rather than disinterest in Christian education, seems to be the major reason.
But…
If it is true that only 50% of the displaced students from these colleges enroll elsewhere (stated here and in other research, although some suggest a time lag), it raises concerns about Christian schools that have closed.
So, I wonder, to use a transportation metaphor, if we can be grateful that there is a growing interest in and participation with public bus transportation, even as we get concerned about decreased routes and stops. The buses can get bigger and longer and handle a growing flow, but as routes are cut, some passengers will opt out.
or back to a weather metaphor, while the sky doesn’t look like it is falling, and it is mostly sunning in the US, some places have storms, hurricanes’ and tornadoes that are displacing thousands.
And sometimes we just need to mourn a little that loss. Some well enrolled institutions like Cabrina, Iowa Wesleyan, Saint Rose, Nyack-Alliance, and others, have had the sky fall for them.
Which I why Christian faculty need to pray for their administrators to have clear visions and fiscal wisdom.
Duane
Great article, Perry . . . though did you really mean the small, conservative Presbyterian Church in America . . . or the Presbyterian Church (USA), aka PCUSA?
Thanks David. I did mean the Presbyterian Church in America (mistakenly typed “of” earlier). The reason their percentage decline is so high is that it went from 2071 (in 2010) to 1548 (in 2021). Enrollment at Presbyterian Church (USA) institutions declined 13% from 85,719 (in 2010) to 74,484 (in 2021).
Thanks, Perry, for a valuable perspective on the U.S. Christian higher education sector where the sky is not falling. I also note that the opportunities for Christian higher education are growing in many other nations despite limited financial aid and tuition discounting. Faith-based university education is a significant sector in India, Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda, and many other countries where INCHE is at work. There is also a committed network of Protestant Christian universities in Europe and Korea. I encourage North American Christian colleges and universities to develop collaboration with at least one international counterpart. Christian higher education worldwide is robust; and U.S. universities and colleges can be encouraged by international partners as we learn and develop together.